It’s Friday, April 26 – know we’re a day later than usual, but wanted to let the NFL draft shine yesterday. We’ve wrapped up most of our first-round series, but still have a few that rage on. Here’s what to watch for as we finish up the first round and head into the conference semi-finals.
1. Eastern Conference Preview #1 – Bucks vs. Celtics
The Eastern Conference series have not been very palatable thus far, especially the two won by the Bucks and Celtics respectively. Milwaukee’s first-round sweep of Detroit was unwatchable, and the Pistons looked more like a team in the lottery than a team in the playoffs. The Celtics had a sweep themselves, but won ugly – Boston averaged 99.3 points per game, and Indiana averaged 91.8. It was a series that would have been fantastic had Victor Oladipo been able to play.
This series is going to come down to one thing – can the Celtics stop Giannis Antetokounmpo? Keep an eye on the fact that Marcus Smart is still out with an oblique injury – that will continue to hamper the Celtics’ defense as a whole. But he was never going to match up with Giannis one-on-one. More likely he would look to help Al Horford try to contain the Greek Freak.
For the record, I commend the 32-year-old Horford for his continued defensive presence. He still gets the best of some of the young studs in the league, most notably Joel Embiid, who often struggles against Horford and Boston’s holistic defensive schemes. But as amazing as Embiid is, Giannis might be even tougher to guard.
The Celtics simply aren’t what they were supposed to be this season. If they hit their groove for this series, they will beat the Bucks. But their internal issues have exposed this team throughout the season as high on in-fighting and low on chemistry. They’re a deeper team than the Bucks (though NBA.com Advanced Stats disagrees with me there), but their whole is unfortunately less than the sum of their parts.
I’m still not convinced that this Milwaukee team will make it to the Finals, but I think they’ll make it out of this round. Bucks in 6.
2. Eastern Conference Preview #2 – Raptors vs. Sixers
Now we’re talking. Kawhi vs. Ben, Gasol vs. Embiid, Lowry vs. Butler, Siakam vs. Harris, Green vs. Redick. We’ve got a series here.
Historically, the Raptors humiliate themselves in the playoffs. They looked well on their way to doing so after their Game 1 loss at home to Orlando, but rebounded to win the next four. Philly followed the exact same roadmap, but the Nets are a better-coached, deeper roster.
Even with the Raptors having home court, I think this is Philly’s series to win. Their final few wins against the Nets were complete, team victories. I know, I know, it was Brooklyn. But don’t sleep on the Nets – they were a tenacious first-round foe, and the Sixers took care of business after their first-game oopsie.
One of Toronto’s biggest advantages is the glaring discrepancy in bench talent and production. The Sixers were 27th in the NBA in regular-season bench points per game. And while, again, NBA.com’s advanced stats disagree with me on the futility of Philly’s bench, I know what I saw all season.
If the Raptors are going to win this series, Lowry-Leonard has to be an absolutely devastating combination every night out there. Marc Gasol needs to play the defense for which he’s been renowned for nearly a decade now, and Danny Green needs to shoot lights-out. Pascal Siakam is the X-factor.
There are two X-factors on the Philly side – J.J. Redick and Jimmy Butler. If Jimmy gives them 15 ppg and plays strong defense, and if Redick shoots 40% from three, this series is over. And those thresholds are well within their respective limits.
As alluded to above, the Sixers are going to live and die by their starters. If their starters play well, and Embiid stays healthy, they will win. It’s as simple as that. I think this series goes the distance, but Philly snags the decisive Game 7 on the road.
3. Some Thoughts on the Western Conference Teams Playing the Waiting Game
Can’t let the East hog all the spotlight
Portland Trailblazers
I don’t think I gave this team enough credit coming into the playoffs. I knew that Lillard was going to be a beast, and of course they were on a mission after being upset (not to mention swept), by the Pelicans in the first round last year. But I thought the absence of Jusuf Nurkic would hurt them more than it has. And they absolutely blew the doors off a talented Thunder team.
Regardless of whether they end up playing the Nuggets or the Spurs, I think this team is headed to the Western Conference Finals on the back of Big Game Dame.
Houston Rockets
When will Chris Paul get injured? Will it be during the wait for the conclusion of the Warriors-Clippers series? Will it be during the Western Conference semi-finals? If so, which game? If not, then during the offseason?
And how will he get hurt? Will it be lower body – calf, ankle, foot, knee, perhaps quad? Maybe an injury to his core will set him back, or maybe he jams a finger or falls awkwardly on his wrist.
And what kind of timeline are we talking? Does he miss the rest of the series, or only a few games? Perhaps he’ll be hampered, but try to play through it. He’ll see a schedule of reduced minutes. The announcers will dissect every grimace on his face – commend his toughness, but shake their heads at the inevitability. Maybe he’ll have to check himself out of the game a few times. Who knows.
4. Checking in on My 10 Bold First-Round Predictions
I made these before the playoffs began, and boy do some of them look good.
Denver goes out to San Antonio in the first round – the series doesn’t even go seven games
Verdict: Well, I was wrong about the not-seven-games part, but everything else looks great. The Spurs represent the only hope we have left for a first-round upset. I’m sorry, but it’s not the Clippers.
Russell Westbrook shoots below 20% during his (likely one-round) playoff stay
Verdict: For the record, I meant to say that Russ shoots below 20% from behind the arc. He ended up shooting 32% from three – paltry, for sure, but not quite as abysmal as I said. I’ll take credit for the “likely one-round” note, though.
The Bucks sweep the Pistons, but Andrew Drummond grabs 70+ rebounds
Verdict: The Piston didn’t stand a chance in this series past the first commercial break. They indeed were swept, but Drummond only got to 52 rebounds.
Chris Paul suffers some sort of injury
Verdict: Not particularly clairvoyant. YET.
The Magic accidentally take the Raptors to seven games
Verdict: I felt like a genius after Game 1. The Raptors are hard to watch in the playoffs, but their ultimate stumble was probably never going to come against Orlando. Helloooooo Philadelphia!
The Thunder have had a wildly inconsistent season – if you’re a betting man, stay the fuck away from them; that being said, they should be thanking the basketball gods that they’re matching up with Portland and not Houston.
Verdict: I was correct when I said not to bet on the Thunder. But perhaps I should’ve give Portland more credit.
Jimmy Butler averages more points in the fourth quarter alone than he does in the first three
Verdict: I’m struggling to navigate to the right view for this in Basketball-Reference.com. But safe to say that this was incorrect.
The Clippers take two games off of the Warriors – they have a ton to play for, what with trying to show free agents the potential that they have
Verdict: Series is 3-2, baby. And while I fully expect the Warriors to close this out on the road in Game 6, I will point out that the last time they blew a home elimination game, a certain someone led a Cavs team back from a 3-1 deficit in the finals.
Damian Lillard averages the most points per game of any player in the first round
Verdict: My best call. Lillard is averaging 33.0 ppg in the playoffs, tops in the postseason. That 50-point, series-clinching game Tuesday night was a thing of beauty. However, watch out for KD – he’s averaging 32.0 per game in the playoffs thus far, and his series ain’t over.
Utah somehow beats Houston
Verdict: Errr…
5. Top 10 List – What Now for Russ?
Russ doesn’t let the haters, or logic, get to him. On the heels of another first-round elimination, here’s his offseason gameplan.
10. Westbrook pulls the pins out of his Kevin Durant voodoo dolls and dumps them into the trash.
“These don’t fucking work,” he grumbles
9. He calls Paul George twice a day to make sure he’s not requesting a trade. Still unconvinced, he dresses up as George’s girlfriend for several weeks to find out more
8. A reporter asks if Russ has ever heard of the phrase work smarter, not harder.
“Speak English, bro,” he replies
7. Ignoring the plea of his advisors, Russ says that he still hasn’t been loyal enough to Oklahoma City and buys several cattle ranches
“Separation issues, much?” his annoyed accountant asks
6. Brimming with new ideas, he rededicates himself to his fashion label. His new lines are set to drop in September: Backstabber, Oklahoma Rage, Loyalty, and his personal favorite, Every Single Person in the state of Utah is Racist
“I wanted something subtle, but powerful,” he says
5. Westbrook convinces himself that all he needs to do is add a teardrop floater into his arsenal
4. Now that he has officially perfected the triple-double, Russ holds a press conference and announces that there is nothing left for him to accomplish
3. Westbrook begins his annual handshake refresh with all of his teammates, not allowing anyone to go on vacation until complete
2. Russ sits down with his PR team to practice his non-sequiturs.
Agent: “Alright, Russell. What do we say when we’re asked ‘Do you think shooting 22% tonight on 35 attempts hurt the team?’”
Westbrook: “Shit, I know this one…oh right! ‘I love my kids!’”
Agent: “Perfect!”
