The Head vs. The Heart
Last week was quite the successful launch for Stein vs. The Field, with three wins and a push. This week will prove to be far more difficult.
This week will also see our first instances of the Head and the Heart disagreeing on certain match-ups. Accordingly, I will add an extra line to each of those to let you know ultimately where you should put your money.
Record in last week’s Wild Card Round: 3-0-1
Record for the 2019 playoffs: 3-0-1
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Saturday, Jan 12 – 4:35 EST
The Head:
The Hot vs. The Not. As everyone knows, the Colts finished the season 9-1 and then routed the Texans in the Wild Card round. The Chiefs, meanwhile, were dormant last week after limping into their bye with a 3-3 close to their season (1-2 in their final three).
We’ve seen a red-hot wild card team come in and slap a sleeping giant before, but that doesn’t mean this will be one of those cases.
Still, the alarming trends for the Chiefs in the playoffs are well-documented. The Chiefs are 1-10 in their last 11 playoff games, including 1-4 under Andy Reid. Their one win was a shutout of the Brian Hoyer-led Texans. If you keep sifting through the Chiefs playoff garbage bin, you’ll also find 2014’s notorious 45-44 loss (to the Colts, I might add) in which the Chiefs were leading 38-10 with 12:39 remaining in the third quarter.
I think this game comes down to two things – offense and experience.
Offense – everything the Colts do well, the Chiefs do better. The Colts’ strength is their QB-Head Coach tandem of Andrew Luck and Frank Reich – but Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are even better. The Colts offense was 7th in total YPG – but the Chiefs ranked 1st.
Experience – I don’t care how transcendent Pat Mahomes was in the regular season. This is his first full season as a starter, and this is his first playoff game. Frank Reich dazzled in his playoff debut. Can Mahomes hold serve?
The Chief’s putrid defense is going to be their Achilles heel, coupled with a multiple-INT day from Mahomes. I love Andy Reid, but he and his Chief’s playoff struggles continue.
Pick: Colts +5.5
The Heart:
There may be no greater Jekyll and Hyde in sports than Andy Reid’s teams in and out of the playoffs. Andy Reid in the regular season is 195-124 (.611), and in the postseason he’s gone 11-13 (.458).
Usually I’d try to be funny here or go on a rant or something, but the truth is, it hurts my heart to see Andy Reid struggle like this. With the exception of maybe Marv Levy, I can’t think of a Super Bowl-less coach who has ever deserved one more. It speaks volumes that, the second that the Eagles bow out of the playoffs (if they do), the entire city of Philadelphia will be rooting for this guy. But I just can’t trust Reid in the playoffs, especially with this being Pat Mahomes’ first playoff game. I’ve seen this movie too many times.
Pick: Colts +5.5
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Saturday, Jan 12 – 8:15 EST
The Head:
This is a big line, especially for the playoffs. And make no mistake – this is going to be a home game for the Cowboys. Their fans are going to outnumber the Rams fans at the Memorial Coliseum.
Dallas is another one of those teams that’s gotten hot at the right time, finishing the season 7-1. But let’s be honest – they didn’t deserve to win that game against Seattle last week. Pete Carroll undid an entire season of marvelous coaching with a game plan from 1973 that he found in the cellar. The Seahawks featured a run-heavy attack that was essentially a middle finger to modern football conventionalism.
The Rams finished their season 2-2, including putting up a combined 29 points in back-to-back losses to the Eagles and Bears. They got back on track a bit in their last two games, putting up 31 and 48 on the Cardinals and 49ers respectively, but those teams frankly suck. This Rams team was not themselves down the stretch.
Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott are going to gash the 23rd-ranked rushing defense in the league, and I think Los Angeles’ offensive woes are going to continue against a stout Dallas D (Leighton Vander Esch is an absolute beast). This is one of those games where Jared Goff might end up looking like a toddler lost in the supermarket.
This is also one of those games that looks far different on paper than how it’s going to play out. Los Angeles should win this game by 2+ TDs – the talent gap on and off the field is that drastic. But this is going to end up being a four- to five-point Rams win at best.
Pick: Cowgirls +7
The Heart:
I cannot stress this enough – it’s Pete Carroll’s fault that I have to watch another Cowboys game this season. Dallas is going to get blown to smithereens by Sean McVay and the Rams, and I’m gonna love every second of it. You give one of the best coaches in the league an extra week to prepare, and he’ll make you pay.
Watching Dak Prescott play quarterback is like watching a dog try to cook a soufflé. He gets yanked after his fourth INT.
Pick: Rams -7
What do I actually think? As much as I hate the Cowboys, -7 is a lot. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but take Dallas +7.
