It’s Thursday, May 30 – and it’s the day every basketball fan has been waiting for. It seems like forever since we’ve had the NBA action we crave, but now it’s finally back on the biggest stage. Your patience is about to be rewarded.
I speak of The Starting 5’s return to finally discussing current basketball. What did you think I was talking about?
Kidding. Let’s talk all things Finals.
1. The Golden State Warriors – State of the Union
What more really needs to be said about Golden State? This iteration of the Warriors is on the brink of becoming an all-time NBA team, and that’s (foolishly) assuming they haven’t already.
Steph Curry – 3 NBA titles, 2 MVPs, and arguably the best shooter in the NBA history. Klay Thompson – 3 NBA titles, 5 All-Star appearances, and another one of the greatest shooters in NBA history. Draymond Green – 3 NBA titles, 2017 Defensive Player of the Year, and recently named to his fifth consecutive First- or Second-Team All-Defense. Andre Iguodala – 3 NBA titles, NBA Finals MVP, and key reserve (unless he’s starting in the old “Death Lineup”). Coached by Steve Kerr – 5 titles as a player, 3 as a coach, and 2016 Coach of the Year nod.
And that’s not even mentioning Kevin Durant or DeMarcus Cousins, because neither of them played at all in the Western Conference Finals and the Warriors still swept the Blazers. The Warriors clearly don’t need them, and the sports talking heads have even made the argument that perhaps the Warriors are better off without them. And as incredible as KD and Boogie are, Golden State sure looks like they’ve had a weight lifted.
I know what you’re thinking – yes, KD was the leading scorer in ppg in the first round of the playoffs. But look at the second round vs. the Western Conference Finals. In the second round (where Durant played all but one game) vs. the Rockets, the Warriors averaged 96.3 possessions per game and 111.7 points per game with 62% of their points coming from an assist. In the Western Finals vs. the Blazers, they had 98.5 possessions per game and 113.3 points per game with 69.6% of their points coming from an assist. And before you ask, in the regular season, the Rockets and Blazers had quite similar regular season defensive ratings (No. 16 for the Blazers, No. 18 for the Rockets). For as transcendent as Kevin Durant is, he likes his iso sets more than any other Warriors do, and it occasionally clogs up a bit of what the Warriors do best – move the ball all over the place and shoot your face off.
Are the Warriors actually better without KD? Lol, no. But they’re just fine. And if Kevin Durant returning to your line-up is a concern of yours? Man, things must be going well.
2. The Toronto Raptors – State of the Union
For some bizarre reason, the internet lists the Toronto Raptors’ active roster as having 15 players on its active roster. The fact of the matter is, there’s one player on their active roster, and his name is Kawhi Anthony Leonard.
Now, I want to caveat here – I didn’t watch a second of the Eastern Conference Finals. I was still too sick after how Game 7 of the Sixers-Raptors series ended. Try to convince me I’m being dramatic, I dare you. And yes, I know that while Kawhi was still magnificent in the Eastern Conference Finals, he wasn’t quite as godlike as he was in the series against the Sixers. But if the Raptors are going to have any sort of chance against the Warriors (which a lot of sources are predicting they most certainly do), they need Sixers-series Kawhi. Here’s what else they need:
Danny Green needs to be his freakish 3-and-D self and hit 40%+ from beyond the arc. Marc Gasol needs to put up double-doubles, stand up to Draymond Green, and also erase any trace of Andrew Bogut (or DeMarcus Cousins) from this series. While Kyle Lowry needs to keep his shooting volume low, he needs to establish his 3-point shot, if for no other reason than to space the floor as much as possible. This might be difficult with his nagging hand injury, but the Raptors need Lowry to dig deep. Lowry had his second-worst 3-point shooting percentage of the decade this season, canning 34.7% of his long balls. He hasn’t been much better in these playoffs, shooting 35.5% from deep. Any sort of threat from three that he can give them, they’ll take. But though his shooting is always a huge plus, it’s not even close to the most influential part of his game. A fantastic example – remember that playoff-opening loss back in the first round against Orlando? Lowry got roasted nationally for putting up a full goose egg in the game – zero points on 0-for-7 shooting from the field, 0-for-2 from the line. Well, what if I told you that Lowry had by far the best plus/minus of any Raptor in that game, at +11? No other starter, not even Kawhi, was a positive. Lowry made his presence felt with 7 rebounds and 8 assists, and plenty more that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet.
The other key players know who they are. Obviously, Pascal Siakam needs to give them at least 18 ppg, and Serge needs to be a defensive force. Maybe OG Anunoby will be back, that will certainly help. Then there’s Fred VanVleet, Patrick McCaw, Normal Powell, yada yada yada. This series is about Kawhi Leonard and no one else for the Raptors.
3. So Who Wins?
I’m shocked to see so much about the Raptors winning this series. Look, I get that the Dubs have never not had homecourt advantage during their many Finals runs over the past four or five seasons. But come on, this is still the Warriors.
The sports analytics site fivethirtyeight.com has a model that gives the Raptors a 55% chance of winning the series, based off of homecourt advantage and Golden State’s injuries. The site also made the point that the Raptors are healthier and in a better groove than they were during the regular season.
Well you know what? I don’t have any fancy predictive models. I got a C in my college accounting class, and a D in microeconomics. But what I do have is two eyeballs, two testicles, and two thumbs to enter a money line bet on the Warriors.
Now, when I first made my bet on the Warriors to win the series, I got them at -285 and I felt like a genius. Pretty soon, the line was down to -270, indicating that plenty of smart money was coming in on the Raptors. So, there’s that.
But I’m holding strong, and I’m not wavering – the Warriors will win this series. Other than Kawhi and Danny Green, there’s no one on the Raptors with a championship pedigree, and I don’t expect this team to know what to do when the going gets tough in the Finals. Out of respect for his veteran status and his numerous playoff runs with the Grit ‘n Grind Grizzlies, I’ll also throw Marc Gasol in the knows-what-he’s-doing-in-the-playoffs pile, but it won’t matter. Golden State is just a different beast. And don’t underestimate the Kerr-Nurse disparity.
I threw $256 on the Warriors to win $90. I recommend you join me. However, if you’re feeling crazy and want to bet on the Raptors, I recommend parlaying their money line with Kawhi being the MVP. Because believe me, if the Raptors win this series, Kawhi will be the MVP. There’s simply no other way.
4. A Thought Experiment
As you may have deduced above, I want to run a thought experiment here, so please humor me.
There’s an NBA dynasty, led by the unquestioned best player in the league and his trusty, future-Hall-of-Fame sidekick. They’ve changed the face of the NBA, and seem to be destined for as many NBA championships as they’d like. But suddenly, they decide that what they have isn’t enough and they do they unthinkable – they bring in another surefire future Hall of Famer, a player who leads the league in a major statistical category and makes some sort of All-NBA team every single year. What’s worse is the new addition is a formerly hated adversary.
After the addition of the new player, the team goes on to easily win the next three NBA titles in a row. You probably see what I’m getting at here, but if you don’t, hopefully you’re thinking that I’m describing the “plight” of the Golden State Warriors upon adding Kevin Durant. Actually, I’m describing when the Bulls of the 1990’s added Dennis Rodman, defensive and rebounding savant.
I’m playing devil’s advocate here a bit, because I’m a total Durant hater, and I think his joining the Warriors is one of the all-time lamest moves in sports history. But is his move really that different than what Rodman did? When he joined the Bulls, no one would’ve mistake Rodman for a top-3 player in the league, as Durant was when he joined Golden State. But you could make the argument that the fit of Rodman into the Bulls was a much, much easier one than bringing KD into the Warriors. Defense and rebounding travel and translate. An iso-leaning offensive game doesn’t always, especially when the Warriors already had such a well-oiled offensive machine. Don’t sleep on Rodman – he was absolutely crucial for those final three championships, leading the league in rebounding in each of those three consecutive seasons.
It’s just food for thought – no one really holds it against Jordan that he added a hated, but historically productive and talented rival in Dennis Rodman to his team in order to secure three more rings. But Jordan sure as hell wouldn’t have left the Bulls to join the Pistons back when he couldn’t get past them in the late 80s/early 90s before breaking through.
5. Top 10 List – Vegas Edition
As I indicated above, there’s always a lot of action to be had on the NBA Finals. It’s a great time of the year for Vegas. Here are the top ten things going on in the sports betting world as it prepares for the final NBA series of the year:
10. Vegas looks forward to the hundreds of bets that will accidentally be placed on the Toronto Blue Jays
9. Thinking it’s foolproof, Adam Silver puts $500,000 on the Warriors under the pseudonym The Commish of Gefilte Fish
8. In an attempt to even out the money placed on the two teams, books offer free Hulu with any Raptors bets
7. This time of year, Tim Donaghy always sits by the phone
6. Vegas still offers lines on the Blazers and Bucks just in case anyone hasn’t been paying attention
5. A blanket ban is instituted on Canadian dollars
4. Oddsmakers are having trouble setting the money lines for “Who will Draymond kick in the groin”
3. Charles Barkley has rented out his usual suite at the MGM, and brought along a suitcase filled with $100,000 to figuratively blowtorch
2. Several thousand unhappy wives are bracing themselves for yet another year of no birthday presents
1. Looking for a guaranteed win, my editor bets on both teams to win
