It’s Thursday, Feb. 21 – there hasn’t been any actual NBA action in a week now. So instead of my usual five points, here are five things to watch for during the season’s home stretch
1. Overrated East
Is the top of the East really as strong as everyone says it is? The cream of the conference looks like this: Milwaukee (43-14), Toronto (43-16), Indiana (38-20), Boston (37-21), and Philadelphia (37-21). And before we go any further, let’s take Indiana out of the mix. I’ve been as impressed as anyone by how this team has continued to perform without Victor Oladipo – I thought the Pacers were immediately out of contention when he went down. But after losing four straight, the Pacers then won six in a row before dropping their final game before the break to the Bucks. That’s worthy of applause, but it’s just not sustainable, and the team frankly wasn’t playing top-tier teams during that stretch.
That leaves us with Milwaukee, Toronto, Boston, and Philadelphia. The Bucks have the best record in the entire NBA, but I’m sorry, I just don’t buy this team even making it into the Eastern Conference Finals. Their best player is a 24-year-old blossoming superstar who’s never won a playoff series. There’s one person on the roster with any Finals experience, and that was George Hill (lol), who was physically on the Cavaliers team that got swept by Golden State last year. Have we already forgotten we’re talking about the Milwaukee Freakin’ Bucks here?
So, now we have Toronto, Boston, and Philly. As discussed last week, the talent in the Sixers’ starting five is ethereal. But they have absolutely no bench, and on Wednesday they announced a bunch of injuries seemingly out of nowhere. Joel Embiid is going to miss at least a week with knee issues, though a scan revealed no structural damage. I’m sure the team brass was thrilled to see him lacing up for the All-Star game. And reserve shooting guard Furkan Korkmaz apparently has a torn meniscus that he suffered at some point during the loss to the Celtics on Feb. 12. Couple that with Philly’s well-documented struggles against the Eastern Conference brass and an overmatched head coach, and we have a recipe for not playing basketball in June.
I would argue that it’s Toronto’s or Boston’s spot in the Finals to lose, as they might be the two deepest teams in the entire NBA. Brad Stevens could get five farm animals to compete out on the floor. As for the Raptors, they might finally be able to make some playoff noise with LeBron comfortably restrained 2,500 miles and one conference away. We shall see.
2. The Obligatory Will The Lakers Make the Playoffs? Blurb
Let’s just cut to the chase. Will they?
ESPN BPI Playoff Odds estimates that the Lakers have a 5.8% chance of making the playoffs. This is based on ESPN’s BPI (its measure of team strength and remaining schedule), which is then factored into a simulation run in a near-endless loop, like Diners, Drive-Ins & Dives on the Food Network.
Honestly, the people who trust these ESPN predictive algorithms are also the people who put their hands in their mouth on the subway. You heard it here first: LeBron is gonna find a way to sneak these Lakers into the eighth seed in the West. They’ll be promptly swept by the Golden State Foregone Conclusions, but at least they’ll have made it.
The Lakers currently sit three games back of the Clippers for the eighth spot. In between the two is Sacramento, who are only one game back of the Clippers. The Lakers didn’t do themselves any favors by slogging into the All-Star break with a 3-7 finish, but not all hope is necessarily dead. In their 25 remaining games, the Lakers get the Clippers twice and the Kings once. But the rest of their schedule is essentially a nightmare. Still remaining are the Rockets, Bucks (x2), Nuggets, Celtics, Raptors, Jazz (x2), Thunder, Warriors, and Trail Blazers.
Am I already rethinking my playoffs guarantee a few paragraphs ago? Yes. Can LeBron still get this Lakers team through this coming stretch and into the playoffs? Yes.
3. The (Possibly Pointless) Tanking War
There are four shamelessly awful teams in the NBA, and I’m not even counting the 19-29 Atlanta Hawks as one of them because they’ve been respectable as of late. We have:
- Phoenix Suns 11-48 (.186)
- New York Knicks 11-47 (.190)
- Cleveland Cavaliers 12-46 (.207)
- Chicago Bulls 14-44 (.241)
These teams are insultingly bad. They insult me, they insult you, they insult their fanbases, and they insult the National Basketball Association. They’re playing for one thing, and that is a 6-foot-7, 285-pound prodigious slab of muscle named Zion.
What’s great about this, though, is that only one of these teams can get him. And better yet, thanks to the zany NBA lottery system, what if none of the four teams above gets him? That’d be hilarious.
The Knicks, while literally the worst franchise in the NBA since the 2001-02 season, at least have big dreams in free agency to look forward to. And whether they get Zion or not, the Suns have a very young, very talented core that will continue to solidify over the next few seasons. But the Cavaliers and Bulls have absolutely no future whatsoever without Williamson. And honestly, I don’t even know if they have a future with him.
4. Carmelo’s Still on the Couch
Have you already forgotten that ‘Melo has been eligible to sign somewhere new for more than three weeks now? I haven’t!
Obviously, the Lakers have been the most rumored team – thanks to the well-documented Carmelo-LeBron friendship – but it’s interesting that nothing has happened there yet. Fool Magic once, shame on you. But fool Magic 20+ times, perhaps he’s finally starting to learn how to sniff out a bad decision.
Miami seems to pop up as well as a destination, which makes complete sense for Anthony. He can play 25 minutes a night, and then hang out with his buddy Chris Bosh on the beach and spend the night reveling in the Miami nightlife. Melo has never given a $#@! about winning, so Miami might be perfect for him.
His only obstacle would be that, at 73 years of age, Pat Riley still wants to win like he wants oxygen. But even Pat knows that this Heat team is going nowhere. There are rumors that Riley might even step down after this season.
In the grand scheme of NBA affairs, is where Carmelo ends up a can’t-miss storyline? Definitely not. But it’s so amusing to watch Carmelo Anthony’s career unfold to the music of Curb Your Enthusiasm.
5. A Few Bold Predictions for the Rest of the Season
- Regardless of all the drama recently, the Celtics represent the East in the Finals
- The Wizards make the playoffs – they absolutely love playing without John Wall
- Denver goes out in the first round of the playoffs – perhaps to the Spurs?
- This isn’t even a prediction, it’s a just a wild fact I didn’t know where else to put in the column – the Grizzlies allow the second-fewest points per game in the NBA, and currently sit at 14th in the West
- James Harden does not repeat as MVP – I’d say it’s Giannis’ to lose
- The Nets finish the season on a terrible run and they miss the postseason
- My editor and I smooch
