The Head vs. The Heart
I should be coming into Super Bowl Sunday with a 6-3-1 mark against these playoff spreads. But the refereeing in the NFC Championship has me at 5-4-1 instead. I’m not mad at all, thanks for asking.
Some people think this Super Bowl is going to be boring. While it might not live up to skydiving or hallucinogenics, it’s absolutely worth noting that in Tom Brady’s previous eight Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots’ margin of victory or defeat has never been more than eight points. That means that someone always has a chance to win the game down the stretch, and I don’t expect this year to be any different.
That being said, any Super Bowl deserves some extra love. Accordingly, I’ve laid out a few of my favorite prop bets, in addition to the obligatory over/under and pick against the spread.
Record in the Championship Round: 1-1-0
Record for the 2019 playoffs: 5-4-1
Super Bowl LIII: Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots (-2.5)
Sunday, Feb 3 – 6:30 EST
The Head:
As you probably know by now, the line for this game astonishingly opened at Rams -1. Unfortunately, by the time my stupid book had the line available, it had already flipped to Patriots -1.5. We seem to have reached equilibrium at Patriots -2.5.
I’ve read some interesting theories, the most intriguing being that Vegas has tricked everyone – the public and the sharps – into taking the Patriots. More than 80 percent of the money is on New England, and that’s exactly how Vegas wants it. Vegas actually thinks the Rams are going to win, and its taking its own massive bet by artificially tipping the cash scales toward the Pats.
Frankly, they might be right. On paper (yes, I know I love saying that), this Rams team is vastly more talented on both sides of the ball than the Patriots are. Los Angeles has a 4-2 edge over New England in both Pro Bowlers and All-Pros. But perhaps the Patriots’ greatest skill over the last two decades has been figuring out how to neutralize their opponents’ best players and render talent imbalances futile.
We all should know better at this point than to bet against the Patriots. But I want to point out something I noticed when going through the Patriots’ playoff history while Brady and Belichick have been with the team.
What’s the opposite of a silver lining – a brown lining? Let’s go with that. If there’s a brown lining to Tom Terrific having played in 40 playoff games, 13 AFC Championships and nine Super Bowls as of today, it’s that teams have a very, very good sense of what he and the Patriots like to do in the postseason. Most teams simply aren’t good or smart enough to exploit it, but the numbers are interesting.
During their time together, Brady and Belichick have faced seventeen different teams in the postseason. If you isolate their first playoff meeting with each of those teams, the Patriots are 14-3. But if you isolate all the subsequent rematches with those teams in the playoffs, the Patriots fall to 15-7 – still great, but representative of a drop in winning percentage from 82% to 68%. Most importantly, B&B are 0-2 in their two Super Bowl rematches (losses to the Giants and Eagles). Teams hate the Patriots, and love getting another shot at them. I know there has been 100% turnover from the Rams roster that lost to the Patriots 17 years ago, but still. You know what they say about revenge.
The two teams to beat these Patriots in the Super Bowl had one glaring thing in common – a dominant defensive line. It’s well-established that an effective pass rush transforms Brady from a brilliant quarterback into merely a good one, and the Rams have exactly that. Los Angeles led the league in pressure generated by its interior pass rush thanks to the league’s best (defensive) player in Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, who’s finally decided to turn it on in the playoffs.
This year, the Patriots made their way through this postseason by wiping their feet on their annual doormats and carving up lazily assembled zone defenses. For all I just said about teams that get another shot at the Pats in the postseason, the Chargers and Chiefs are a combined 0-5 in the playoffs against B&B. Belichick vs. Reid and Brady vs. Rivers tend to have about as much suspense as a treasury bond. Sean McVay’s offense and Wade Phillips’ defense will represent new wrinkles for them to deal with.
If the line had never moved from Rams -1, I would’ve asked my parents to mortgage their home and put it all on the Patriots. But the Rams are now +2.5, and that’s looking mighty juicy. The trend of Tom Brady’s Super Bowl victims attaining Super redemption continues.
Pick: Rams +2.5
The Heart:
Whoever wrote the above is an idiot, and likely a virgin. High flying offenses don’t stop the Patriots – the tough, hardnosed defenses of the NFC East do.
You think you’re a genius for pointing out that the Rams’ defense held the Saints to only 23 points two weeks ago in New Orleans? Well the Eagles held the Saints to 20 points in New Orleans the week prior, and they’re all currently shopping for golf clubs.
What makes the great ones truly great? Think about the Patriots, or the Golden State Warriors, or Roger Federer, or prime Tiger Woods. They’re never going to beat themselves – you have to be sound in every single facet of your game coming in to even have a chance. Then, you have to play the game of your life.
I want to stay on the Federer analogy for another moment – if you’re not a tennis fan, just skip to the next paragraph. My favorite tennis player for many years was Andy Roddick, known for his explosive serve and forehand. But his weak backhand and all-around game kept him from ever becoming one of the game’s all-time greats. Federer used to absolutely eat him alive, going 21-3 against him, including 8-0 in majors. Then take a guy like Djokovic – not at all an offensive player, but an all-around wizard and arguably the greatest returner and defensive player in the history of the sport. Djokovic has the 25-22 advantage over Federer, including 9-6 in majors. The sports have little in common, but all sports are an exercise in tactics and warfare.
The Rams don’t have the kind of identity that beats the Patriots – a veteran QB who doesn’t make mistakes when it counts, and a defense that maintains on all three levels. Yes, they have the crucial pass rush, but I don’t expect much else to hold up.
Would I feel more comfortable taking the Pats money line? Yes, but this is Stein vs. The Field, not Stein Shops for Tampons. Take the Patriots to cover.
Pick: Patriots -2.5
What do I actually think? Take the Pats -2.5. I hate the Rams.
Prop Bets!
Looking for some added excitement, but too much of a coward to quit your job? Me too! That’s why I’ve selected some of my favorite prop bets for your entertainment and financial benefit.
As a note, these are the bets I’ve identified as glaring opportunities to make some money. If you want to take shots in the dark and guess the Gatorade color, or Adam Levine’s penis size or whatever, be my guest.
Over/Under (56.5)
Super Bowl overs have hit slightly more than the unders at 26-24-1. For all you math whizzes, Super Bowl I didn’t have an over/under. So history’s not going to be much of a help.
To be candid, I don’t have as much of a read on this one as I do the ones below, but I feel that no Super Bowl betting guide would be complete without the over/under pick. So even though the sharp money seems to have moved the total down from 58 originally, let’s go with the over.
First of all, I don’t expect a particularly strong defensive showing from either of these teams. But also, the Patriots’ recent Super Bowl appearances have produced totals of 74, 62, and 52 points. These are not the defensive gut-it-out Super Bowl wins that first put the Patriots on the map in the early 2000’s. While Belichick is still considered a defensive genius, the type of defensive genius he is regarded as has changed over the years. His first three Super Bowl wins – in 2001, 2003, and 2004 seasons – came with the sixth-, first-, and second-ranked defenses in terms of points allowed. But recently, Belichick’s brilliance has been in piecing together defenses with typically low-budget fixes and discarded parts from other teams. These new Patriots defenses can surrender points, but they hold up just enough when they need to the most. The results have been largely the same.
I’m getting off topic. Just take the over.
Super Bowl MVP
Tom Brady is the most obvious choice, and his odds reflect that at -115. That’s no fun, and plus, we’re trying to get rich. I’m surprised to see Aaron Donald at +1500. If the Rams come away with a win, Donald’s fingerprints are going to be all over this game. Recently, voters have shown less of a hesitancy toward giving the award to a deserving defensive player. After only offensive players won Super Bowl MVP from 2004-2013, two of the last five winners have been on defense. Put some money there accordingly.
Want to get really crazy? Take $5 and throw it on Josh Reynolds at +10000. Reynolds replaced Cooper Kupp in the slot when Kupp went down with a knee injury and has performed sneakily well for Los Angeles. Obviously it’s a long shot, but I could see Reynolds having a big game with the Patriots having to commit to stopping the Rams other offensive weapons.
Will Jared Goff Throw an Interception?
Goff will throw a pick, without a doubt. Even if he tosses 4 TDs and the Rams win 35-14, he’s throwing a pick. He’s too young for Belichick not to fool him into at least one. Goff’s up-and-down play has been well-documented as of late, and while he impressed two weeks ago in the deafening Superdome, he is still yet to fully shake the public perception that he is overly reliant on McVay. Some reports earlier in the season even said that McVay was giving Goff audibles at the line of scrimmage after the offense had already lined up.
I currently see “Yes” as -145, and “No” as +100.
Will Julian Edelman Have a Rushing Attempt?
I like this one too. Including the playoffs, Edelman already has ten of them on the season, and Belichick has never shied away from Super Bowl misdirection. Rather, the biggest stage has always been Belichick’s favorite place to show off his little white gadget receivers.
I currently see “Yes” as -115, and “No” as -115.
(For the record, a close runner-up here was Cordarrelle Patterson scoring a touchdown in some form. I’m not officially endorsing it, but might be worth looking into.)
Which Team Will Have the Last Possession?
I have a strong feeling that the game will end with the Rams in possession of the football. I foresee this happening in one of two ways.
1. The Patriots will have the ball with two minutes left, down by a few points. As he always does, Brady will drive the Patriots down the field for a score that gives them the lead. Their sideline goes crazy. Belichick might smirk, but probably not. There’s only a few seconds left for the Rams to put together their own scoring drive, and the clock runs out while they’re attempting to do so.
2. The Rams stun the millions who are half-watching this game by beating the Patriots. After New England’s final attempt fails, the Rams kneel their way into NFL history.
I currently see “Rams” as -110 and “Patriots” as -120. I’m shocked, but certainly not complaining that the Rams aren’t favored here.
